June 11, 2021

The late mahjong player and novelist Tetsuya Asada, famous for his Mahjong Wanderings, wrote the following lines in his novel "Bainin Blues" (Kodansha Bunko).

"Go against the down-and-out people, this is the golden rule of gambling."

"Luck" and "fortune" are inherent in competitions. This is not only related to gambling, but also to investments, the management of groups such as companies, and even the rise and fall of nations and regions.

An easy example of gambling is betting on red and black in the two-choice games "Baccarat," "Big and Small," and "Roulette," and there are people who keep losing because the opposite number comes up no matter how many times they bet. If you bet against the luck of people who have been abandoned by such luck, you can often win without any effort.

Similarly, in investments, for example, there is Mr. "Gifu XX," who has been mentioned several times on this blog. He is a famous person who has everything he does backfire, both buying and selling, and is called the "god of reverse." Recently, his comments have been featured in famous economic magazines and websites as "statements by important people" (which is amazing in itself).

Following this tradition, people whose analyses and comments have all been wrong can also be called "reverse gods." A prime example is Professor Nishiura Hiroshi of Kyoto University, whose analyses and predictions regarding COVID-19 have all failed to come true since last year.

Since announcing his estimate that "420,000 people would die" last year, every one of his predictions has been wrong. Moreover, he has yet to explain why his predictions have been so far off, and it seems he has no intention of doing so. And the day before yesterday, the following news broke:

Tokyo Shimbun June 9 article ↓

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Professor Nishiura and others analyze the possibility of a second state of emergency in Tokyo in August, experts fear "the Olympics will lead to a further increase"

(https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/109697 )

A team led by Professor Hiroshi Nishiura (infectious disease epidemiology) of Kyoto University has estimated that if the state of emergency declaration for COVID-19 measures is lifted on the 20th of this month, the epidemic in Tokyo may spread again, even if vaccinations are progressing, and a state of emergency declaration may be unavoidable again in August. The team reported this at a meeting of an expert group advising the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on COVID-19 measures held on the 9th. (Omitted)

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Since Professor Nishiura, who has now become a "reverse god," has issued such an analysis, the upcoming Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics will likely be held safely based on past experience.

If you do that, your future investment policy and business management policy will be decided.

By the way, you need to be careful because "luck" and "fortune" are fickle. Therefore, you should always be respectful of "reverse gods."

I once heard a story from a securities man. Thirty years ago, when face-to-face trading at securities companies was still the norm, there was an old man who was a customer at a branch of a securities company in Tokyo whose orders always backfired. His orders were so bad that they were considered "charming," and the other customers welcomed him with kindness.

However, one man in his 30s openly insulted him, saying, "I made money because I bet against you." The old man, who had been insulted, stormed out of the store and returned several minutes later, stabbing the man repeatedly with a hidden kitchen knife.

"Do the opposite of the declining person." But he should probably keep quiet.

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